2026 AFL Predictions: Rhys Mathieson’s Take

About The Author

Rhys Mathieson is a former AFL midfielder known for his toughness, competitive edge and spirited personality on and off the field. After years at the top level, he’s shifted his focus to lifestyle, wellbeing and storytelling—sharing insights from his playing career, the lessons learned along the way and the mindset that shaped him as an athlete. Today, Rhys brings his honest, down-to-earth voice to our blog, offering readers a unique mix of sport, culture, personal growth and real-life reflections.

Alright, the off-season’s here. 2025 has wrapped up and everyone’s either in Bali, Byron or pretending to do “recovery sessions” at the pub. But inevitably people are already talking about next year, so I’ve jumped on the bandwagon and chucked my two-cents down on paper too.

So while the boys are kicking back, here’s my early look at how I reckon the 2026 AFL season might play out.  Take it with a grain of salt (and maybe a beer).

Flag Favourite: Brisbane Lions (Go on Boys, Make It Three!)

Yeah, I’m calling it early – the Brisbane Lions can go the three-peat just like they did a shade over 20 years ago.

Before you say I’m biased, fair call. But let’s be real for a second here, the club’s built different right now. The leadership’s solid, they’re stacked across every line, and they’ve still got that hunger. It’s hard enough to win one flag, let alone go back-to-back, but when a group’s got that belief, you can just feel it.

They’ve handled the pressure, handled the noise, and keep showing up when it matters. If they stay healthy, they’ll be there again in September for sure. The only real question is – who’s actually going to be able to stop them?

And if they do go all the way, it’ll be one of the great runs in modern footy, simple as that.

Who to Watch: Christian Petracca

Christian Petracca is the bloke I’ve got circled for next year. He’s already a star with legitimate power, presence and that clean burst through congestion in the middle of the field, but I reckon he’s got one more level in him.

There’s been a bit of chat about St Kilda being interested. Now that’d shake things up a bit. Imagine Petracca in the red, white and black, feeding Kingy up forward and dragging that midfield into proper contention.

Whether he moves or not, he’s primed for a monster season. So expect him in the Brownlow Medal conversation early.

Wildcard Prediction: Sydney Swans Back in Business

You can’t keep the Sydney Swans down for long. Yes, they had a quiet year, but that list’s just too good to stay mid-table.

Errol Gulden, Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney – now that’s as dangerous a core as any. Add a couple of smart off-season moves, and they’ll be right back in the mix.

So I’m tipping them to climb back into finals and cause some top 8 chaos. They’ve got that blend of polish and mongrel that tends to win them the tight games.

The Smokies and the Sliders

Every season, a few teams surprise you, and a few completely fall off a cliff.

The Risers:
I’ll say it again, the Gold Coast Suns under Dimma look like a proper footy side. The way they finished last season, there’s some serious momentum there. Finals have to be the goal for them in 2026 because they’ve got too much talent to keep wasting another season.

The Sliders:
To be honest, I wouldn’t be shocked if Carlton take a small step back. I’m not saying they’re cooked, but they’ve been up for a while and those hard years of footy take a toll, not to mention all the recent trade talk causing some angst. The list’s good, but far from bulletproof.

The Smokey:
Keep an eye on Freo next year. If they sort out their ball movement and keep their best 22 on the park, I reckon they’re a smoky for a finals run because their young guns are starting to click.

State Of Origin is Back (Finally)

Now this one gets me up and about. The State of Origin is finally returning in 2026. About bloody time!

Footy needs it. Players need it. And frankly, the fans definitely need it. There’s nothing like a bit of state pride to rile things up. It’s always intriguing to see blokes who’d normally be mates smashing into each other for bragging rights.

And yeah, Queensland will back themselves of course. You’d back Charlie Cameron to put on a show in that maroon jumper again, whereas the Vic boys will talk a big game, but they won’t love chasing him!

Early Ladder Guess (No Need To Overthink It)

You can throw a blanket over half the comp right now I think, but here’s how I see some of the top end shaping up:

1. Brisbane Lions – Still the team to beat.
2. Collingwood – Can never write them off.
3. Sydney Swans – Bounce-back year.
4. Port Adelaide – Will win big, but lose weird.
5. Gold Coast Suns – Finally crack September.
6. GWS Giants – Tough as ever.
7. Geelong – The vets will hang in.

And the bottom few? North, West Coast and Richmond are all still building so still a few years away.

My Brownlow & Coleman Picks

Brownlow:
If Petracca hits the season in shape, he’s a lock to poll high. He’s just got that mix of power and clean touches that umps love.

Coleman:
I’ll back Charlie Cameron. Small forwards don’t usually win it, but Charlie’s no ordinary small forward. If the Lions are rolling, he’ll be kicking bags again.

The Wrap

Footy’s a funny game. Every year someone new pops up, someone unexpected slides, and half the predictions look cooked by round six. But that’s why we love it, because you just can’t script it.

For now, it’s all about recovery, rest, and seeing who actually turns up ready to rip in come February. But if you’re asking me now, I’ll recap – Brisbane go three in a row, Petracca dominates, and Sydney sneaks back into September.

That’s my call but let’s see who proves me wrong!