There’s nothing quite like September footy. The NRL Finals are here, and Week One already looks like one of the most open, unpredictable brackets we’ve seen in years. With injuries hitting big names, form lines all over the place, and no clear dominant side, this weekend could set the tone for an epic finals series.
NRL Finals Week One Schedule
The league has locked in venues and times across two countries – Melbourne, Auckland, Sydney, and Canberra all get a slice of the action.
- Friday, Sept 12 – AAMI Park (Melbourne): Melbourne Storm (2) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3)
- Saturday, Sept 13 – Go Media Stadium (Auckland): New Zealand Warriors (6) vs Penrith Panthers (7)
- Saturday, Sept 13 – PointsBet/Sharks Stadium (Sydney): Cronulla Sharks (5) vs Sydney Roosters (8)
- Sunday, Sept 14 – GIO Stadium (Canberra): Canberra Raiders (1) vs Brisbane Broncos (4)
This year’s twist? The NRL has gifted Canberra a Sunday home slot as minor premiers, a move they say is all about fans. And given the Green Machine’s form, it’s hard to argue with a packed GIO Stadium to close out the weekend.
NRL Finals Records to Watch in 2025
The NRL already smashed attendance numbers this season, with over four million fans through the gates and an average crowd above 20,000 per game. Finals footy will push those numbers higher.
With four different cities and even a trans-Tasman clash, the stage is set for more milestones. Broadcasters are expecting record eyeballs, and the spread of venues means local fans get genuine finals buzz across the weekend.
NRL Injury Watch – Storm, Bulldogs, and Key Outs
You can’t talk finals footy without talking injuries. Here’s the latest on who’s in and who’s out for Week One:
- Melbourne Storm: Missing Jahrome Hughes (fractured forearm) and Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion protocols). That’s two massive losses in their spine. Expect Cameron Munster and Harry Grant to carry more of the load.
- Canterbury Bulldogs: Without Bronson Xerri and Marcelo Montoya, reshaping their backline depth. Still, they’ve shown all year they can win territory and scrap through ugly sets.
- Judiciary Watch: Finals always bring drama off the field. Suspensions and late rulings can change squads within 24 hours. Coaches will be sweating every update this week.
Why the 2025 NRL Finals Are Wide Open
Honestly, this is as even a finals series as we’ve had in years. Canberra sit top, but even as minor premiers they’ve shown vulnerabilities. Melbourne have injuries. Canterbury have been up and down. And then you’ve got Penrith lurking outside the top four, with all that finals experience.
Even the Roosters, in eighth, have the scoring ceiling to scare anyone on their day. That’s why every single matchup this weekend feels dangerous for favourites.
Joe’s Game-by-Game Finals Preview
Storm vs Bulldogs Prediction: Joe’s Take on Melbourne’s Injuries
This one’s all about availability. Losing Hughes and Papenhuyzen strips Melbourne of direction and spark. Munster will have to go full maestro to make it work. Canterbury, meanwhile, will fancy their chances to roll the ruck and pressure the Storm’s back three.
At AAMI Park, Melbourne are still favourites. But given the outs, this feels like a coin toss rather than a comfortable Storm win.
Warriors vs Panthers: Can Auckland’s Crowd Lift the Underdogs?
The Warriors finally get a home final, and Go Media Stadium will be rocking. Their kick chase and discipline have to be spot on to pin Penrith deep.
The Panthers though… they’re built for September. Finals experience, strong ruck tempo, and the cool heads to grind out ugly wins. If the Warriors can keep it close and ride the crowd energy, they’re a shot. But Penrith rarely blink in knockout games.
Sharks vs Roosters: Momentum Swings & Aerial Contests Decide This One
This is the swing game. Cronulla’s improved late in the season, but the Roosters have weapons all over the park. The key will be discipline – whichever side keeps penalties down and wins the aerial battle on corner kicks probably takes it.
I’m leaning Sharks, mostly because Shark Park in September is a nightmare for away teams. But if the Roosters click early, they can silence the crowd.
Raiders vs Broncos: Discipline vs Chaos in the Match of the Round
The main event. Canberra finished top of the ladder and now get a fired-up home crowd behind them. Their plan is simple: dominate the middle, box Brisbane into tough exits, and grind them down.
The Broncos though, have the pace and flair to blow games open. If their key playmakers get cleared, they’ll bring line-break danger everywhere.
This feels like a clash of styles: Raiders’ discipline versus Broncos’ chaos. Canberra probably have the edge at home, but if Brisbane get off to a fast start, the upset is very real.
NRL Finals By the Numbers
- 4 cities, 2 countries: The most geographically spread opening finals week in years.
- 4M+ attendance: The regular season already hit record heights. Finals should lift those numbers further.
- Key injuries: Hughes and Papenhuyzen out, Montoya and Xerri sidelined – squads are already stretched.
- No clear favourite: Analysts are calling this the most even finals field of the last decade.
My mate Alex Glenn’s NRL Finals Predictions
Former Bronco and my good mate Alex Glenn has also weighed in on each clash:
Storm vs Bulldogs
“This one’s going to be a real arm wrestle. Losing Jerome Hughes is massive for Melbourne, but playing at home down in Melbourne is always an advantage. The Storm know how to step up in September, and I just think they’ll have too much firepower for the Doggies in the big moments. Melbourne to edge it.”
Warriors vs Panthers
“The Warriors will get a huge lift from their home crowd – you can feel that energy when they’re up and about. But finals footy is a different beast and Penrith have been there, done that, and know how to grind out wins when it matters. Experience will count here, and I see the Panthers being too strong.”
Sharks vs Roosters
“This one’s tough to call. Both sides are evenly matched and it’ll go right down to the wire. The Shark Park crowd can be a big difference maker, and if they get on top early, it’s a hard place to come back from. I’ll back the Sharks at home in a close one.”
Canberra vs Broncos
“The most exciting NRL team coming up against the minor premiers will be the biggest clash of the weekend, Broncos are going up against a fired up Raiders team and already got word that the whole town is behind them this weekend so Broncos are going to play their best footy to beat the minor premiers. With that being said I see the broncos getting the win hitting form right at the perfect time.. horsey gang baby”
Joe’s Final Thoughts
For me, Week One of the NRL Finals is about chaos. Injuries have opened the door, no one looks unbeatable, and every match feels like it could swing on a single error or moment of brilliance.
That’s what makes finals footy so good. The Storm need to prove they can adapt. The Bulldogs want to cash in on momentum. The Warriors will throw everything at Penrith, who are lurking with finals pedigree. Cronulla and the Roosters are impossible to split. And then you’ve got Canberra trying to prove their top spot means something, while Brisbane chase an upset.
No easy picks here. And that’s exactly how finals should be.