Chances of Winning Roulette: Odds & Probability Explained
Roulette has fascinated casino players for more than 300 years and continues to be the most popular table game in Australia. With its spinning wheel, bouncing ivory-coloured ball and the hypnotic rhythm of red/ black– red/ black, it’s one of the most recognisable games in the world. Yet despite its reputation for simplicity, roulette is a game built on mathematics: probabilities, house edge, odds and statistical expectation.
Understanding your chances of winning roulette doesn’t mean you can predict where the ball will land — but it does empower you to make smarter decisions, choose better bets, avoid poor ones, and know exactly how the house edge affects you each time the wheel spins.
In this guide brought to you by the team at Australia’s number one online casino, Joe Fortune, we break down roulette odds and payouts, examine whether roulette is really a 50/50 game, explore luck vs strategy, and explain whether casinos can rig a roulette wheel. By the end, you’ll have a clear, grounded understanding of what your real chances are whenever you sit at the table.
Is roulette a 50/50 chance?
Many new players assume that roulette is almost a perfect coin toss. After all, you can bet on red or black, odd or even, high or low all seemingly 50/50 propositions.
However, roulette is not a 50/50 game, and here’s why:
The green pocket(s)
- European Roulette has 37 pockets → numbers 1–36 + a single zero (0).
- American Roulette has 38 pockets → numbers 1–36 + a zero (0) + a double zero (00).
These green zero pockets break the 50/50 balance. When you place a bet on red or black, you’re covering 18 numbers but there are 37 or 38 possible outcomes.
Real probabilities
European Roulette
- 18 red numbers / 37 pockets = 48.65% chance of hitting red
- 18 black numbers / 37 pockets = 48.65% chance of black
American Roulette
- 18 red numbers / 38 pockets = 47.37% chance of red
- 18 black numbers / 38 pockets = 47.37% chance of black
In both versions, the casino maintains a small mathematical advantage. That’s the house edge, the built-in profit margin for the casino.
Stats Summary
No even-money roulette bet is truly 50/50. They are close, but the green zero(s) tip the balance in the casino’s favour. This doesn’t make roulette unfair; it simply means the house has a long-term statistical edge over players.
Roulette odds & Payouts
To understand your chances of winning roulette, you need to know two things:
- Probability, this is the mathematical likelihood a bet will win.
- Payout this is how much the casino returns if the bet is successful.
Roulette has a wide variety of bet types. Some cover many numbers, while others target a single number for a massive payout. Here is a breakdown of the most common bets in European Roulette.
Inside Bets (higher risk, higher payout)
Straight-Up Bet (1 number)
- Winning probability: 1/37 = 2.70%
- Payout: 35:1
- House edge: 2.70%
- Summary: Low chance, high reward. This is the iconic “pick a number and hope it hits” bet.
Split Bet (2 numbers)
- Winning probability: 2/37 = 5.41%
- Payout: 17:1
Street Bet (3 numbers)
- Winning probability: 3/37 = 8.11%
- Payout: 11:1
Corner Bet (4 numbers)
- Winning probability: 4/37 = 10.81%
- Payout: 8:1
Line Bet (6 numbers)
- Winning probability: 6/37 = 16.22%
- Payout: 5:1
Outside Bets (lower risk, lower payout)
Red/Black
- Winning probability: 18/37 = 48.65%
- Payout: 1:1
Odd/Even
- Winning probability: 48.65%
- Payout: 1:1
High/Low (1–18 or 19–36)
- Winning probability: 48.65%
- Payout: 1:1
Dozens (1–12, 13–24, 25–36)
- Winning probability: 12/37 = 32.43%
- Payout: 2:1
Columns
- Winning probability: 32.43%
- Payout: 2:1
Why payouts don’t match true odds
Roulette payouts are designed to be slightly lower than what true probability would suggest.
For example:
- A straight-up number has a 1 in 37 chance.
- True fair payout would be 36:1.
- Casino payout is 35:1.
That one-unit difference is the house edge.
House edge comparison
| Roulette Type | House Edge |
| European Roulette (1 zero) | 2.70% |
| French Roulette (with La Partage rule) | 1.35% |
| American Roulette (0 + 00) | 5.26% |
The more green pockets on the wheel, the worse your chances which is why players generally prefer European or French wheels.
Is roulette 100% luck?
In short: yes, roulette outcomes are based entirely on chance and here’s why:
1. Physical randomness, on a real table, the ball’s final position is determined by:
- Launch force
- Spin speed
- Wheel friction
- Bounces and deflections
- Gravity
- Micro-imperfections on the wheel
As such these variables make every spin completely unpredictable and random, no matter how much players might hope that there could be a distinct edge, casinos make sure the wheel is perfectly flat on the table.
2. Online roulette uses RNG technology
Digital roulette wheels rely on random number generators, ensuring each spin is independent and unbiased. All previous spins or bets play no part in what number is generated.
3. No strategy changes the odds
While roulette strategies such as Martingale, Fibonacci, D’Alembert, Labouchere, etc. can influence how you bet, they cannot change:
- your probability of winning,
- the house edge,
- or the random outcome of the spin.
They can help with bankroll structure, but they do not overcome mathematics.
4. Skill does not influence outcome
Unlike poker, blackjack or sports betting, roulette has:
- no decisions that influence probability,
- no optimal strategy that can reduce the house edge,
- no way to predict short-term outcomes.
Roulette is a purely random game and that’s part of its appeal which makes it so popular.
Do casinos rig the roulette table?
Short answer, no. Reputable casinos such as Joe Fortune, do not rig roulette tables. Both land-based and licensed online casinos must meet strict fairness, testing and auditing standards. Here’s how fairness is guaranteed:
At Physical Casinos
- Wheels undergo regular inspection
Casinos constantly check for:- loose parts
- worn frets
- uneven pockets
- biased spins
- Surveillance monitors every spin
Any irregularities are flagged. - Casino advantage already built-in
They don’t need to rig anything — the house edge ensures long-term profit.
In Online Casinos
- Random Number Generators (RNGs)
Certified RNGs ensure every outcome is random and independent. - Third-party auditing
Testing agencies regularly check for fairness. - Regulation and Self-Governance
Licensed operators must:- publish payout percentages
- maintain transparency
- meet mandatory technical standards
If a casino is properly licensed and audited, the roulette games are statistically fair.
When should you be cautious?
You should avoid:
- Unlicensed casinos
- Pop-up online sites with no reputation
- Casinos without transparent auditing
These can, in rare circumstances, host games that don’t meet fairness standards.
Improving your Chances of Winning at Roulette
While you can’t change the odds, you can play more strategically:
1. Choose the right wheel
- Always pick European or French roulette.
- Avoid American Roulette due to the extra zero.
2. Stick to low-risk bets
Even-money bets (red/black, odd/even) give you the highest probability of winning.
3. Manage your bankroll
Set limits, pace your wagers, and avoid chasing losses.
4. Don’t rely on betting systems
They don’t change the house edge.
5. Know when to walk away
Set a win target and a loss limit.
Final Thoughts
Understanding the chances of winning roulette isn’t about unlocking a secret formula, it’s about recognising the maths behind the wheel. Roulette is a game of pure chance with a fixed house edge that cannot be altered by strategy, bet size, or intuition. But by knowing the odds, choosing the right wheel, and managing your bankroll carefully, you can play smarter, enjoy the suspense, and get the most entertainment value from every spin. So now that you know, why not check out the range of roulette games available here at Joe Fortune’s online Aussie casino…