If you’ve spent time playing blackjack at Joe Fortune, you’ll know that a total of 15 is one of the most tricky hands to get, let’s face it you’re kind of stuck in a bit of a no-man’s land… not strong enough to feel confident, but also not weak enough to fold (or even surrender, if allowed). It’s the kind of hand that the decision you reach can make or break your session. So, what’s the right call when you get dealt a 15… Do you hit, or stand and then hope the dealer busts?
What Hand Combinations Make Up a 15?
First up, it’s helpful to understand what a 15 can look like in blackjack. Several card combos can give you a total of 15, and the way you play it may change depending on how the hand is made up. So, let’s kick off with a few common examples of a hard 15:
- 10 and 5
- 9 and 6
- 8 and 7
- A Face card and 5
- You might also end up with a soft 15, which typically comes as Ace and 4.
The key difference between a Hard 15 and Soft 15 is this, a hard 15 has no flexibility. If you hit and go over 21, you’re bust. But a soft 15 gives you a bit of wiggle room because the Ace can count as either 11 or 1 meaning you can hit at least once more without busting your hand.
Standing on 15 Versus a Bust Card
Let’s say you’re playing a hand with a hard 15, and the dealer is showing a bust card which usually means anything from 2 up to 6. These are considered weak cards for the dealer, and the odds of them busting are higher when they start with one. In this situation, the correct play is usually to stand and here’s why…
The goal isn’t always to get 21, it’s to beat the dealer. When the dealer shows a bust card, the odds move into your favour if you simply hold and let them play out their hand. The more cards that the dealer draws, the more likely they are to go over 21.
Standing on a 15 in these spots might feel a bit passive, but mathematically it is the best choice as you’re letting the house make the mistake, instead of risking your own hand. Here’s a quick tip which should help you, if surrender is an option and the dealer is showing a 10, many blackjack pros recommend surrendering your hard 15 especially if it’s a 10 + 5 or 9 + 6. The reason why… it is because it is a lesser loss than playing it out and likely busting.
Hitting on 15 Versus a Superior Card
Now let’s look at what to do if the dealer is showing a strong card such as a 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace, this is where things get interesting. If you’ve got a hard 15 and the dealer is showing one of those big cards, you’re generally better off hitting. Yes, you risk going bust, but the dealer’s chances of making 17 or more are so high that standing on 15 gives a very high probability that you will lose. Let’s break it down for you:
- Dealer shows 7–9 → Hit
- Dealer shows 10 or Ace → Hit, (or surrender if available)
Even though it’s tough to do, the stats support you hitting here. Sure, you’re taking a calculated risk to try and improve your total, because standing gives you a worse expected outcome over time. A lot of novice players freeze when they see a 10 or Ace across the table and decide to stand on 15. But the reality is, in the long run, that’s the play that’ll cost you more.
What to Do with a Soft 15 in an H17 Game
You’ve got a soft 15 which is usually an Ace and a 4 which unlike a hard 15, gives you more breathing room. Because the Ace can drop from 11 to 1, which means that hitting won’t automatically bust you, and you’ve got a better chance of making a stronger hand. Here’s what to do in an H17 game (dealer hits soft 17):
- If the dealer shows 4, 5, or 6 → Double down (if allowed).
- If doublings not allowed → Hit
- If the dealer shows 2, 3 or 7+ → Always hit!
- Doubling on soft 15 against 4–6 puts more money in the pot at a time when the dealer is statistically more likely to bust.
Remember it’s about pushing your edge when the conditions are right. Even though a soft 15 is weak, the flexibility of the Ace makes it less dangerous to hit. So don’t be afraid to go for it.
Does Strategy Change Between an H17 and an S17 Game of Blackjack?
Yes, but only slightly. In H17 games, the dealer is more likely to improve their weaker hands, because they’re required to hit a soft 17. That gives them a slightly higher edge. In response, your strategy becomes a touch more aggressive, you’ll be more inclined to hit or double to try and match the dealer’s strength.
In S17 games (where dealer stands on soft 17), the house has less of an advantage, so you might adjust some borderline plays by standing more often or doubling in slightly safer spots. With a hard 15 specifically, your decisions don’t change much between H17 and S17 as you should still:
- Stand against a dealer who has 2–6
- Hit against a dealer who has 7–Ace
- Surrender against a dealer who has 10 or Ace (if allowed)
Where you’ll notice more variation is with soft hands, where you might choose to double down more often in S17 games.
Strategy Summed Up
Here’s our rundown on what to do with a Hard 15 in blackjack:
- If the dealer has 2–6 → Stand
- If the dealer has 7–9 → Hit
- If the dealer has 10 or Ace → Hit, (or surrender if allowed)
- In H17 games, play more aggressively
Here’s our rundown on what to do with a Soft 15 in blackjack:
- Double down against the dealer 4–6 (if possible) otherwise, hit
- Hit against all other dealer cards
- In S17 games, play more conservatively.
Final Thoughts
Blackjack is not just a game of luck but also it’s a game of skill and sharp decision-making. The hand you dread the most, such as a 15, can be played well if you stick to the odds and make the right calls. You should ignore what your gut tells you, trust the numbers, and you’ll give yourself a fighting chance against the house.
Whether you’re playing at the Crown in Melbourne, The Star in Sydney, or at an online blackjack table at Joe Fortune in the comfort of your own home, by having a sound blackjack strategy you can stretch your bankroll and keep yourself in the game longer. So, just remember the next time you’re dealt a 15, don’t sweat it, you now have all the stats to help you play smart. Also be sure to check the rules of the version you’re playing before you put any chips down!
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