Setting the Stage: AFL Grand Final 2025
The big day is here. The 130th AFL Grand Final has landed, and I couldn’t be more excited. Geelong Cats versus Brisbane Lions at the MCG, Saturday, September 27, 2:30pm AEST. It doesn’t get much bigger.
Geelong are chasing their eleventh premiership and their first since 2022. Brisbane, on the other hand, want to go back-to-back and claim their fifth flag. Two powerhouse clubs, one trophy, and a sea of fans at the ‘G.
How They Got Here: Geelong and Brisbane’s Finals Journey
Geelong’s path has been consistent, built on discipline and a well-drilled game plan. They finished the season second with a 17–6 record. From there, they handled Hawthorn with a 30-point win in the prelim, showing off their class in the clutch.
Brisbane’s ride has been a little bumpier but no less impressive. They finished third, dropped their qualifying final to Geelong, but refused to bow out. They rebounded with a crushing 53-point semi-final win over Gold Coast, then outmuscled Collingwood in the prelim. Finals pressure? They seem to thrive on it.
Key Form Lines and Recent Stats
- Geelong’s second-half strength: The Cats have built a reputation for surging after the first quarter. Against Hawthorn, they dominated contested ball and clearances, led by Bailey Smith and Patrick Dangerfield. Their ability to squeeze sides after halftime is a weapon.
- Brisbane’s belief and midfield grit: Even with Lachie Neale nursing a calf injury, the Lions look dangerous. Rising stars Hugh McCluggage and Will Ashcroft are proving they’re ready for the big stage. Brisbane’s confidence is surging at just the right time.
- Head-to-head in 2025: Brisbane had the better of Geelong in the home-and-away season, with wins in Round 3 (by nine points) and Round 15 (by 41 points). But Geelong flipped the script when it mattered, beating them in the qualifying final.
AFL Grand Final 2025 Injury Updates
- Tom Stewart out for Geelong: A massive blow. Concussion protocols rule him out after the prelim, leaving Geelong’s backline without its general.
- Lachie Neale in for Brisbane?: Reports say he’s fit after a calf scare. Even at less than 100%, his presence changes the contest.
- Squad depth tested: Geelong will lean on their depth to cover Stewart’s intercept role. Brisbane’s younger midfield brigade will need to step up if Neale isn’t fully firing.
Tactical Battles to Watch
- Clearance control: Geelong’s midfield engine, led by Dangerfield, Smith, and Blicavs, thrives on stoppage dominance. Brisbane must match them in the trenches or risk being carved up.
- Defensive rebounds: Without Stewart, Geelong lose their top interceptor. Brisbane’s forwards will look to pressure replacement defenders and pounce on turnovers.
- Goal accuracy under pressure: Finals are won on the scoreboard. If either side wastes chances in front of goal, it could prove costly.
- Experience vs momentum: Geelong’s older heads know this stage well. Brisbane’s youth and energy might be the perfect counter if they stay composed.
AFL Grand Final Historical Context
This clash is unique. It’s the first time Geelong and Brisbane have ever faced off in a Grand Final.
For Brisbane, it’s a chance to cement themselves as the team of this era, a third straight Grand Final appearance and potentially back-to-back flags.
For Geelong, it’s about legacy. They’ve been a benchmark club for over a decade, and another flag would underline their consistency in a way few sides can match.
My mate Mitch Robinson’s take
No surprise but I’m all in on the Lions this week. It’s the biggest stage of the year, and the boys are peaking at the right time. That win over Collingwood in the prelim showed how much belief this group has built. Everyone knows the question mark was whether Lachie Neale would get up, and after seeing him train today I’m confident he’ll be out there. That lifts the whole midfield group – he’s the kind of bloke who demands attention and frees up McCluggage, Ashcroft and Dunkley to go to work.
Geelong are a seriously good side, they’ve been consistent all year, but I think Brisbane’s pressure game is built for the Grand Final. If they hit the MCG with the same intensity they brought last week, especially through the contest and in defence with Harris Andrews locking it down, they can go back-to-back.
For me it’s Lions by a couple of goals and I reckon Neale will have a big one to remind everyone why he’s still the man.
Players to Watch
Harris Andrews (Brisbane) has been labelled the best tall defender in the competition this year. He took 14 marks against the Suns and completely shut down their forward line. If he controls Geelong’s key forwards and intercepts cleanly, Brisbane can launch counter-attacks from deep in defence.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) remains a big-game player. His ability to burst from stoppages and lift teammates is crucial. If he dominates clearances and gets clean inside-50 entries, Geelong will have the upper hand.
Joe’s Final Thoughts: A Grand Final Built on Margins
This Grand Final feels like one of those contests that’ll come down to fine details. Geelong need to adapt quickly to life without Stewart and stay dominant in clearances. Brisbane must prove Neale’s fit and fire early to put the Cats under the pump.
I’m expecting a tight first half, maybe even a low-scoring arm wrestle. But momentum swings at the MCG are brutal, and whichever side handles those waves better will take home the cup.
If Brisbane bring the intensity they’ve shown in recent weeks, they could very well go back-to-back. But don’t underestimate Geelong’s composure when the stakes are sky-high. This one’s going right down to the wire…