Setting the Stage: Four Clubs, Two Spots in the AFL Grand Final
We’re down to the business end of the AFL season, the 2025 Preliminary Finals. Four heavyweights remain: Collingwood, Brisbane, Geelong, and Hawthorn. Two will walk onto the MCG on Grand Final day, two will be sent packing.
Form lines are tight, injury lists are messy, and the stats are stacked with storylines. That’s finals footy, every mistake magnified, every moment critical. Let’s break it down game by game.
Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions
Saturday, September 20, MCG, 5:15 pm
Collingwood have had the luxury of a week off after a gritty qualifying final win over Adelaide. Rest in September counts for plenty, fresher legs, cleaner recovery. Brisbane, on the other hand, come in battle-hardened after dismantling the Suns in their semi-final.
Brisbane’s Brutal Response to Neale’s Absence
Losing Lachie Neale looked like a knockout blow, but Brisbane answered with one of their most ferocious finals performances. They belted the Suns 14.16 (100) to 6.11 (47), led by Josh Dunkley’s 18 tackles, a club finals record, and Cam Rayner’s bone-shattering tackle breaks. That’s the sort of footy that screams, “we’re not done yet.”
The question is whether they can sustain that without their Brownlow medallist steering the ship. Depth mids like Hugh McCluggage are under the pump. He was well-held against Geelong earlier in the series – if he gets clamped again, Brisbane’s midfield might buckle under Collingwood’s pressure.
Collingwood’s Defensive Pressure the Key
Champion Data loves Collingwood’s pressure stats, and for good reason. They’ve out-tackled Brisbane in three of their four clashes this season, and pressure ratings have consistently tipped in the Pies’ favour. Defensive commitment wins finals, that cliché holds true, and Collingwood are masters of it.
Their senior brigade, Steele Sidebottom, Darcy Moore, Nick Daicos, bring the know-how, while Jordan De Goey’s return adds spark to their forward craft. The concern? Their goal-kicking accuracy. Finals don’t forgive wastefulness in front of sticks.
Joe’s Take: Collingwood vs Brisbane
If Brisbane can match Collingwood’s pressure without Neale, this could be a thriller. But if the Pies bring their trademark squeeze and kick straight, they’re hard to crack.
Geelong vs Hawthorn
Friday, September 19, MCG, 7:40 pm
The second prelim is dripping with history, Cats vs Hawks at the MCG under lights. Doesn’t get much better.
Geelong’s Consistency and Depth
The Cats are still purring. They brushed aside Brisbane earlier in the finals 16.16 (112) to 11.8 (74), with contested ball and inside 50s on their terms. Their defence remains their bedrock, intercept, rebound, composure, it’s all there.
Geelong’s depth across the park is underrated too. Tom Atkins and Bailey Smith keep things tidy, while senior heads give them flexibility in big moments. Seventeen wins from twenty-three this year shows consistency.
Hawthorn’s Momentum and Chaos Factor
Hawthorn have been the surprise packet. They stunned Adelaide in the semi-final, showing a resilience and edge that wasn’t always there earlier in the year. Jai Newcombe has been enormous, four finals, four best-on-ground nods. Add in Jack Gunston’s five-goal haul, and suddenly the Hawks have firepower again.
Yes, injuries have stretched their forward structure, but they’ve adapted. Their conversion under pressure has tightened, which makes them dangerous. If they can quicken ball movement from half-back and exploit Geelong’s potential fatigue, the upset is on.
Joe’s Take: Geelong vs Hawthorn
The Cats are the safer pick, structure, system, and fitness. But Hawthorn’s momentum is real, and momentum can carry you a long way in finals.
Injury and Selection Updates
- Jordan De Goey (Collingwood): Back from concussion and soft tissue issues, gives Collingwood another weapon in contested situations.
- Lachie Neale (Brisbane): Out for the series. Lions’ mids must cover the gap.
- Hawthorn Forwards: Depth tested, but role players stepping up.
- Geelong Squad: Relatively healthy, with flexibility to rotate matchups.
AFL 2025 Prelim Finals: Key Factors That Will Decide Games
- Pressure Defence: Collingwood’s proven weapon. Can Brisbane handle it without Neale?
- Clearances and Contested Ball: Whoever wins stoppages gains field position, Geelong and Collingwood excel here.
- Conversion Under Pressure: Both Hawks and Pies have wobbled in front of goal. That won’t fly now.
- Momentum Swings: Finals are decided in bursts. Brisbane’s second-half surge vs Gold Coast proved it. Hawthorn’s belief is growing.
Mitch Robinson’s Roundup
Crows vs Hawks
That was a shocker for Adelaide. First team since 1983 to finish top and then go out in straight sets, 42 years is a stat you do not want hanging around your neck. Losing Raiken in the middle was massive, you could tell the midfield was missing a spark. On the flip side, Jai Newcombe has now played four finals and been best on ground in all of them, he is a problem for every side right now. And how about Jack Gunston? Five goals, takes him to 70 for the season, that is huge.
The Crows had Worrell racking up 33 touches and Laird with 30, but it did not feel like they could actually break the game open. Hawks were just better across the ground. Josh Ward had 31, Newcombe 28 and a goal, Worpel 22, and then Gunston was deadly in front of sticks. That was the difference.
Lions vs Suns
Now this was brutal. Lions absolutely smashed the Suns, biggest QClash ever in finals. 100 to 47, and honestly, it could have been uglier if Brisbane kicked straight. Dunkley had 18 tackles, that is finals footy right there, and Rayner had 8 tackle breaks, he just would not go down. Hugh McCluggage bounced back in a big way, 33 disposals, clean and composed.
Gold Coast looked cooked. The occasion might have been too big for them, because they just could not match the intensity. Nine marks inside 50 for the whole game, turned that into six goals and 11 behinds. Compare that to the Lions who had 12 marks i50 and kicked 14 goals, 16 behinds, that is dominance.
And I have got to say it, Harris Andrews is without doubt the best tall defender in the comp. The bloke is a riot shield. Took 14 marks and basically locked down the whole back half. Nothing got through him.
Mitch’s Prelim Tips
I am backing the Lions to get the job done against Collingwood and the Cats to hold out Hawthorn.
Joe’s Final Thoughts
This prelim weekend has everything: Collingwood’s squeeze, Brisbane’s desperation, Geelong’s stability, and Hawthorn’s momentum.
Two teams will book a Grand Final spot. Two will fall agonisingly short. That’s the beauty and the heartbreak of finals footy, no second chances.
From where I’m sitting? Strap in, because both prelims feel like they’ll go down to the wire.